Thoughts On UP Elections 2007

Update: I was interviewed by ABN Chicago to discuss UP election results on 13th May 2007. Here is the audio clip of the same.

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BSP supremo Mayawati was sworn in as the 40th chief minister of Uttar Pradesh on 13th May. She is leading the most populous Indian state for the fourth time. Her party surpassed all electoral predictions and secured simple majority on its own winning 206 of the 403 assembly seats thus ending an era of coalition governments after 14 years.

What does these election results mean for various parties?

BJP: A confused party in a state of disarray
Sushma Swaraj was candid in her assessment when she said that people did not considered BJP as an alternative to Mulayam Singh Yadav and rather preferred BSP. She also said that BJP projected itself as an alternative quite late in the elections. This means that the party was not sure about winning from the beginning. Coupled with intra-party conflicts and lack of powerful leadership, BJP suffered a major setback by winning only 51 seats, its worst performance in over a decade. The party tried, albeit at a local level, to hindutivize its campaign by bringing out the poisonous CD against Muslims and giving a free hand to Mahant Adityanath in the eastern UP region. Atal Bihari Vajpayee, probably the sagacious of all the BJP leaders, sensed the pulse of the UP electorate and stayed away from the campaign except for one appearance. BJP also tried to play the caste card by forming alliances with Kurmi party of Sone Lal Patel (Apna Dal) which performed pathetically and was not able to retain the 3 seats it won in the last elections. Convincing Uma Bharti in the later phases of elections to withdraw her candidates didn’t pay much dividend.

UP elections reversed a winning trend for BJP that secured victories in civic elections in Maharastra, UP and Delhi as well as winning state elections in Punjab and Uttrakhand. It also will lead to infighting within the party as Rajnath Singh failed miserably in his home state and so did Kalyan Singh, the chameleonic poster boy of the Mandir movement. BJP also suffered a setback in terms of its core constituency of Brahmins deserting the party and opting for BSP instead. RSS has already started to sharpen knives to call for a more strict Hindutva agenda for the party. The party however needs to realize that it can’t claim its status as a pan-Indian party till the time it continues to alienate the largest majority of India. BJP only gave ticket to one Muslim candidate in this elections who lost. It is to be seen with the impending Gujarat elections, the party will have courage to stand on its own or kowtow the RSS policies.

Congress: Legacy is not enough
Congress had a lot on stake in these elections because its future leader, Rahul Gandhi, criss-crossed the entire state and worked hard to get Congress in a respectable position. However, the crowds that came out to see him did not convert into votes and Congress went down from its last tally of 25 to 22 this time. Its voting percentage remained same with just a marginal increase of 0.01%. It takes much more to win an election than just wave at crowds and flash smiles. It can be good for cameras but not for voters. His attempt to lay the blame of Babri Masjid demolition on Narasimha Rao (which is actually true) did not cut much ice with the voters nor did his attempt to claim credit for the partition of Pakistan. Rahul is still a novice at politics and can be categorized as a drawing room politician at best. It is true that he has a vision for India but people now want more than a mirage. Congress has already sold its equity with the people as much as it could and the past glory of the party can’t be a reason enough for future resurrection. The problem with Congress in UP is that there is no organization at the grass-root level and its cadres have moved elsewhere. The voters don’t vote for candidates they think are not in the race.

Rahul Gandhi mentioned before the elections that he is in for a long haul in UP. He should now fulfill his promise and work towards connecting with the people of UP. He needs some sound advisors (Satish Sharma and Salman Khurshid are just not good enough) who can help him invigorate the cadres and rebuild the organization. If he is next seen in UP for the general elections then Congress then even the crowds may not come to see him. He is no Jaya Prada after all.

Samajwadi Party: People versus person
If there is a classic case of a person becoming bigger than the party then it is that of Amar Singh and the Samajwadi Party. Amar Singh, with Anil Ambani and Amitabh Bacchan on his side, thought that the voters can be led to believe that UP has a low crime rate and is on the path to prosperity. Mulayam Singh Yadav thought that Amar Singh can win him elections by electioneering. Many people were actually more angry with Amar Singh than Mulayam that led to the desertion of old party faithfuls like Beni Prasad Verma and Raj Babbar. The fact that Mulayam ran a crime ridden lawless government was a reason enough for the electorate to reject him and his party. Having a Congress government in Delhi and a BSP government in Lucknow must be the biggest nightmare of Mulayam Singh Yadav. Already, there is talk of reopening old cases and files being burnt by departing ministers. A majority of Muslims still voted for SP but a substantial chunk crossed over to BSP as well. 21 Muslim legislators won on SP ticket this time out of its total tally of 97.

The party’s performance, even though poor, was not really bad. It secured around 30% vote share which is much better than BJP and Congress. SP will continue to have influence in the UP politics for sometime to come but it can’t win elections by hobnobbing with criminals and claiming that the crime rate has fallen. It claims to stand for socialist ideals but Yadav’s own family owns property worth crores. Riots in Mau, Faizabad, Aligarh, Lucknow, Kanpur, Gorakhpur also belied his claims of a secular government. Most importantly, the party should realize that Amar Singh can and bring the party into the limelight but he can’t get people to vote for SP. Nor can Amitabh, Jaya, Aishwarya and Abhishek.

BSP: The real winner
Rajdeep Sardesai of IBN Live remarked in exasperation, as the election results started pouring in, about the aloofness of Mayawati, supremo of BSP from the media and how difficult it is to secure an interview with her. He commented in half-jest and half-disappointment that now that she has won, she needs to accord them an interview at least. It is difficult to survive in Indian politics if you are a one-woman party and keep a distance from the media as a matter of policy. Mayawati, it seems, doesn’t care what media reports or does not reports about her party. Her voters are the poor who can’t afford to watch dumbing-down matches in air-conditioned newsrooms anyway.

In these elections, not only her traditional vote-bank has remained intact but she has performed a miracle that only Congress was able to pull off in its glory days. Mayawati has brought the Brahmins, Dalits and to a certain extent Muslims, on the same platform. This is the most interesting form of social engineering Uttar Pradesh has witnessed recently. Mayawati, a shrewd politician, gave 36% tickets to Brahmins this time and obviously it seemed to have made a difference. It completes a full-circle in politics for BSP as they started with tilak, tarazu aur talwar : inko maaro joote chaar to ye haathi nahiiN Ganesh haiN : Brahma, Vishnu, Mahesh haiN. The vote share of BSP is around 34% according to preliminary trends and it is a big achievement in a multi-cornered contest.

The major challenge for her would be to use the mandate people have given her to control the deteriorating law and order situation in the state and stay away from personal vendetta. BSP will also play a major role in the upcoming Presidential elections with its increased number of legislators. Mayawati also has bigger aspirations for herself and dreams of ruling India one day. Her first step was a major success as she was able to bring together the erstwhile untouchables and the untouched together on a table but how far her social engineering will be successful remains to be seen.

BSP gave around 60 tickets to Muslims out of which 29 won. Naseemuddin Siddiqui, the National General Secretary of the party, was sworn in as a minister along with Mayawati. Since BSP has a history of aligning with BJP, many Muslims are still hesitant to vote for her party. Depending upon how she rules over the next couple of years, the situation could change in future.

A list of Muslim legislators elected in UP can be found at Two Circles as well as the complete list of winners.

Update: Fellow blogger Adnan writes about the elections here.