Sushant K Singh and Rohit Pradhan
The free, fair, and peaceful elections in Jammu & Kashmir are a significant achievement. Only a few a months ago the state was ravaged by protests over the Amarnath land issue; large demonstrations took place in valley matched by equally vociferous and passionate protests in some parts of Jammu. Articulate columnists had suggested what was hitherto unthinkable: India should give up Kashmir, as the issue at hand seemed intractable. Others had argued that the holding elections at this juncture were a meaningless exercise with a guaranteed low voter turn out. The Huriyat conferenceâ€â€having rediscovered it political relevance through the Amarnath land issueâ€â€was on ascendance and had given a call for boycotting the elections.
In sharp contrast to what doomsayers had predicted, Jammu and Kashmir (J &K) recorded a heavy turn out in the recently concluded state elections. Nowhere, not even in the separatist stronghold of Srinagar, voter turn out was in single digits. After the usual political deal making, the state is well on its way to a stable political coalition broadly reflecting the aspirations of the voters.
Some commentators argue that the vote was simply for developmentâ€â€the Indian state should not see the high turn out as a repudiation of the separatist sentiment. While the common Kashmiris remain alienated from India, the pressing need for developmentâ€â€bijli, sadak, paaniâ€â€proved more alluring than the emotive call for azadi. The tendency among commentators to de-link the twoâ€â€a sentiment for azadi and the heavy voting percentages is simplimistic at best. Elections always cover a gamut of issues, and focusing on a single issue would be a grave injustice to the courage, wisdom and will of the electorate.
Guns and votes are not mutually compatibleâ€â€an acceptance of one is an implicit rejection of the other. No one has suffered more grievously than ordinary Kashmiris from the culture of gun which has ruled the state for the last two decades. The large, passionate, yet mostly peaceful demonstrations over the Amarnath land issueâ€â€while every loss of life is regrettable, it was minimal by Kashmiri standardsâ€â€was a pointer towards at least a grudging acceptance of the tools of democracy.
The high turn out in the elections should be seen as another step in this process of eschewing violence and embracing democracy. If Kashmiri aspirationsâ€â€whether for azadi or developmentâ€â€are articulated via peaceful means of the ballot, it willy-nilly represents a rejection of the gun. On similar lines, an important new factor is a new generation of voters that has not seen life without militancy. Seduced by India’s growth story, it believes that elected representation and a peaceful environment will help replicate the same growth trajectory in J&K.
Admittedly, the voter turn out in urban areas remains low vis-à-vis their rural counterparts. At one level, it is merely a reiteration of what has been seen across the countryâ€â€the rural voters participate more actively in the electoral process than the urban middle class. Nevertheless, while it important to recognise that sentiment for azadi remains strong in urban centers, the effect of relatively low turn out in Srinagar or Sopore should not be overestimated. It does not amount to a rejection of India by the Kashmir Valley. Anantnag recorded a turn out of 34% while in Tral (referred to as Tora-Bora of Kashmir a few years ago), more than 60% of the voters chose to exercise their franchise.
Equally, BJP’s sweep of the Jammu district does not necessarily reflect a Valleyâ€â€Jammu divide; both the Congress and National Conference remain important players in the larger Jammu region. In fact, People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has actually won two seats in the Jammu regionâ€â€a first in its short history. The traditional approach of viewing the state as a monolithic entity must be replaced by one which recognises the heterogeneity across regions and demographics. It is also not necessarily a bad thing: Gorakhpur and NOIDA don’t vote on similar lines; why should Doda and Srinagar? It is more important to recognise that the rise of parties like the PDP and the BJP lends democratic voice to hitherto underrepresented groups and sentiments.
Many commentators continue to stress the importance of engaging Huriyat as a genuine representative of the Valley. Not only has Huriyat repeatedly refused to participate in the elections, the voters of J &K have forcefully rejected its unequivocal call for boycotting the elections. Certainly, in a democracy, all politics need not be electoral and Huriyat has the right to engage in agitational, but peaceful politics. However, the self-serving dogma perpetuated largely by the Huriyat leadership that it is the sole representative of the Valley must be rejected. Entering in a dialogue with unelected apparchiaks of Huriyat insults and undermines those who have placed their faith in the Indian democracy.
In fact, the emergence of PDP presents New Delhi with a wonderful opportunity to take forward the political process in the state. With its plank of ‘’soft separatism’’â€â€open borders; demilitarization of Kashmir; and its emphasis on human rights, the PDP has emerged as a genuine mainstream alternative to Huriyat, occupying the same political space, but still proclaiming its faith in Indian democracy. No wonder, in many constituencies, the separatists, especially in the later phases of the elections, surreptiously campaigned for PDP. By providing avenues for the PDP to express itself politically, New Delhi will further marginalise Huriyat and redress, to an extent, the root causes of Kashmiri separatism.
The new government should actively leverage this opportunity to restore complete normalcy in the state. It should start with certain bold and signal measure that further deflate and marginalise the separatists including a plan to reduce a reduce the role of armed forces and turning over internal security duties to the police in a calibrated manner. Similarly, in light of the events of the summer of 2008, it must address regional imbalances by reducing the overrepresentation of Srinagar in the affairs of Kashmir valley and the undue prominence of the Kashmir region in determining the policies of the state government. It should engage with other regions of the state and announce a time-bound plan for rehabilitating Kashmiri Pandits. The central government should institute measures that facilitate integration of Kashmir with the rest of the Indian nationâ€â€physically, financially and emotionally.
As these elections have demonstrated, Kashmir, like Nagaland, Assam and Punjab earlier, has returned to the Indian democratic fold after a violent detour. It is important not to underestimate the challenges India faces in Kashmir. It is equally important, however, not to overestimate them. These elections have thrown up an invaluable political opportunity to move towards a permanent political resolution of the Kashmir issue. It is hoped that the new coalition government in J& Kâ€â€with support from New Delhi–would chart a new course towards peace, stability and prosperity.
Sushant K Singh and Rohit Pradhan contribute to Pragati – The Indian National Review, a policy and strategic affairs publication. Rohit Pradhan also blogs at Retributions.
Photo: Kashmiri Men
This article offers a perspective which is substantially different from the one offered by Shahnaz Agha. This truly then prompts the question, “Will the real Kashmiri stand up?”
As against a very gloomy picture of Kashmir which we had usually come up against, this one offered a ray of hope.
It would be very interesting to see the guest authors debating the issue with each other. It will result in a holistic reading of the Kashmir situation.
Calling these elections “free fair and peaceful” after dozens of protesters were shot (and at least 3 killed), held under some of the most draconian curfews the Valley has seen in years is just further evidence of the obtuse apathy Kashmir faces from the Indian establishment.
Furthermore, this post typifies why politically savy Kashmiris wanted nothing to do with these polls. We understand that while the pro-India parties may clamor from the rooftops that voting is not an endorsement of Indian rule in an effort to lure voters, their duplicitous masters in New Delhi will always claim otherwise.
Like I said before, plenty of similar commentators made equally audacious claims after the “free and fair” elections in 1996 (after all, Indians always claim that Kashmiri elections are “free and fair”). Time proved them wrong, and I sincerely doubt that these elections will prove any different.
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Shahnaz,
If my memory served me more than 300 people killed during Pakistan’s latest genral election. about 200 killed in when Benizer Bhutto came back..so are you ready to call Pakistani election as “rigged” too?
>>>>
Calling these elections “free fair and peaceful” after dozens of protesters were shot (and at least 3 killed), held under some of the most draconian curfews the Valley has seen in years is just further evidence of the obtuse apathy Kashmir faces from the Indian establishment.
Shahnaz,
The current electoral process that was completed in Kashmir is the only option available. The other two would be President’s rule or accession to Pakistan.
From the tenor of your mail, it would appear that the last is the most pleasing to you. Interestingly, Pakistan is not quite as vociferous about Kashmir as it once was. In your opinion, does it imply a dilution in their support? Or is it just a temporary lull?
I do hope things work out well for all of you out there.
“…As these elections have demonstrated, Kashmir, like Nagaland, Assam and Punjab earlier, has returned to the Indian democratic fold after a violent detour…”
is a tad too optimistic- its too early to tell- but I hope you are right.
Everyone is appalled at what is going on in Gaza. So that is what violence brings. I hope
that the triangular problem indo-pak-kashmir be sorted out politically and not through force.
Why do people always dream about greater this or that? The serbs went on a rampage
dreaming of greater serbia. Punjab went through the terrible partition but is now reconceiled to it
and is not dreaming of a greater punjab (same with bengal).
I see Kashmir a little like Cyprus. There is mounting pressure on Greeks and Turks to reunite
the two halfs but will it happen and when it happens, will there be more peace or more war?
“The Message of Jammu and Kashmir Elections”is a delicious recipe of facts,fabrications and fantacy, when there is apparently no message in the event reported. It is strange that people draw conclusions from the end-result of the elections and overlook their antecedents.Results of the day are fondly compared with the past, and remarks are made thereon.For instance, BJP had only one MLA in the last assembly in J&K state and now it has got 11 seats!It is a “rocket-rise!”If we go back to 1996 assembly results , we will find that BJP had 6 seats.Now the picture changes.From a fall of 5 then, it has picked up 10 extra now.Further, in Jammu region there are 37 seats and BJP has got 11 only and the remaining 26 are shared by others.How then it could be described as a”clean sweep of Jammu”?Members of the BJP and supporters will do well to note thatBJP has notmade any miracle in J&K elections as their leaders make them believe.BJP fielded 64 candidates in a 87 members assembly election.It won 11 seats and lost 53in the process!Let them not do such planning anywhere in future.
However,the writers wishes for the future of J&K and democatic India are quite welcome.
How I wish that if only every Indian takes the new year pledge that he will speak the Truth, nothing but the Truth and the whole Truth,in deference to our National Motto- “satyameva jayate!”All evils confronting India will vanish!
”For instance, BJP had only one MLA in the last assembly in J&K state and now it has got 11 seats!It is a “rocket-rise!”If we go back to 1996 assembly results , we will find that BJP had 6 seats.Now the picture changes.From a fall of 5 then, it has picked up 10 extra now.Further, in Jammu region there are 37 seats and BJP has got 11 only and the remaining 26 are shared by others.How then it could be described as a”clean sweep of Jammu””
Did you read what we actually wrote:
Here’s what we did write,
”Equally, BJP’s sweep of the Jammu district does not necessarily reflect a Valley—Jammu divide; both the Congress and National Conference remain important players in the larger Jammu region.”
BJP indeed swept the Jammu district which primarily refers to urban Jammu while PDP and NC while losing some ground remain important players in the ”larger” Jammu region. How is that wrong? Please explain.
In fact, contrary to what you claim, BJP won 8 seats in the 1996 and not 5. Those who claim to know history (and assume others don’t), should first learn their facts right!
Mr.Rohit,Thank you for the information that BJP had 8 seats in 1996.My source gave the number as 6 (six only) and in 2002 it fell from six to one.Hence,I have stated a”fall of5″!Further, I have submitted:”How, then, it could be described as “clean sweep of Jammu”.The quotation marks make it clear that it is not with reference to your erudite article but many websites, which reported that “BJP will be the Voice of Jammu!”For your kind information my knowledge of history cannot be disputed, however, the slip was regarding the statistical data only!No offence, please.
Sire,
When you start by claiming..”“The Message of Jammu and Kashmir Elections”is a delicious recipe of facts,fabrications and fantacy, when there is apparently no message in the event reported” I would assume you refer to our article. Plus the small matter of you commenting on this particular article. So there.
No offense but next time kindly refer to ECI website for information.
Cheers!
Milind,
I don’t know on what basis you’ve decided that the authors of this article are Kashmiri. I don’t see the authors claiming anything of the sort.
As for your second post, I don’t recall ever advocating Kashmir’s accession to Pakistan. I also find it amusing that while you include something as absurd as accession to Pakistan as a “viable solution” you ignore the simplest solution…the one that would likely enjoy the most support among Kashmiris, and the least opposition among Indians and Pakistanis…a plebiscite and an independent Kashmiri state.
Shahnaz,
They seem to speak with a lot of authority on Kashmir. If they are not Kashmiris, they are at least very familiar with what is going on there.
The “simplest solution”, that of an Azad Kashmir, does not seem so practical. However, if the people of Kashmir want to try it out, let them. I don’t see accession to Pakistan as something absurd. There are enough and more Kashmiris who want that.
I agree with the fact that what I say is “amusing” or “absurd” to you. We do tend to look at things in that way when they are not in consonance with our world view.
Shahnaz,
So even if the message is not clear, should we kashmiris not hope for a better world. Or is the world of ever clashes, ever bloodshed and ever hyperbole as shown by seperatists going to be the truth.
I have said this before and let me reiterate. Please conduct an opinion poll(At least Opinion Poll at least Once) based on various factions. For example:- Shias, Gujjars, Pandits, Hindus,Buddhists, Urban Sunni and Rural Sunni voters.
This might be a shock or probably an eye opener that only one segment might favour secession completely. And no doubt educated people and more westernised Muslims like you are the banner bearer of troubles for common kashmiris. You can guess which segment talks so much about Kashmiri nationalism. The other Koshurs just want a better life.
.. the one that would likely enjoy the most support among Kashmiris, and the least opposition among Indians and Pakistanis…a plebiscite and an independent Kashmiri state…
Kashmir is at an important geopolitical crossroads. There are mighty powers everywhere ranging from China, Russia to India who want to grab a piece of action. Kashmiris should look at the plight of Afghans – another race who are suffering terribly for the sin of sitting at the wrong place at the wrong time.
An independent Kashmir would be impossible to defend for the Kashmiri army. More important than that, the sovereignity of the state cannot be preserved amidst such intense international pressure. Just look at Pakistan, which is 10 times larger but which sold its sovereignity to the USA for some millions of dollars each year. A direct consequence of this is that an independent Kashmir will not likely be a democratic state : almost every country in central Asia is plagued by dictatorships. And in all probability, an independent Kashmir will have an Islamic constitution which cannot safeguard the rights of the minorities.
We have already stepped past the age of nation-states. Now is the time of international-states : large political unions which are as big as continents. Examples include the USA and the EU. Within these large federal unions, the local provinces control all major issues such as law, taxation, police, education etc. Only defence, communication and international affairs would be under the control of the federal government.
Under these guidelines, Kashmir already enjoys more provincial independence than any other Indian state. It is time to extend such autonomy to every other Indian state.
I wish Kashmiris Peace, development and stability. Being free, Being in India or Being with Pakistan is not important. What is important is there is no more human rights violation or killing of anyone. People have a right of progress and are free to speak their minds. Pakistanis must welcomes these elections if they have a mandate of the Kashmiris.