Gujarat has made history. Gujarat is in news ever since genocide of 2002. For every small or big development it remains in news. Gujarat carnage was unparalleled in the history of India and it will continue to be discussed for a long time to come. Like partition of our country it cannot be easily forgotten. Any election in Gujarat will draw into discussion Gujarat carnage. Modi, I maintain, could not have won 2002 election without organizing that carnage nor the 2007 election could he have won without it.
In my opinion it is wrong to maintain that he won election due to economic development he helped achieve in Gujarat. Gujarat is as much polarized today as it was in 2002. Even if Modi had not mentioned anything related to Hindutva, he would have won. Question is only of margin. Now the congress leaders also have admitted it publicly that we had not kept Sonia Gandhi in any illusion about victory in Gujarat. We had told her we cannot win. Only thing is we did not expect him to win with such majority.
He won with such majority for number of reasons one of which was Mayawati’s candidates. In many constituencies Dalits voted for Mayawati candidates and in those constituencies congress candidates lost by margin of not more than 5000 votes. Congress would have undoubtedly won in these constituencies had Mayawati not set up her own candidates taking away Dalit votes.
I would also like to throw light on the question as to why Modi continues to appeal Gujarati voters so much that he can win 
hands down even five years after genocide of 2002? The answer lies in paradigm shift in political ideologies throughout the world. Unfortunately no analyst so far has seen Gujarat election in this perspective.
Up to eighties socialism and socialist ideologies had great appeal for the people. When Indira Gandhi, in late sixties of last century, gave slogan of quit poverty (Gharibi hatao) it had electrifying effect on Indian masses; and she instantly emerged as great leader in her own right and all Congress stalwarts like Kamraj, Morarji Desai and Atulya Ghosh and others fell by the roadside. She was voted to power with overwhelming majority.
Similarly in Pakistan when Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto gave slogan of Roti, Kapda Makan (bread, cloth and house). He acquired charisma of his own and Ayub fell by the roadside. To this slogan he added, after Bangla Desh war thousand-year war with India and he emerged as an unquestioned leader of Pakistan. However, the basic mantra was roti, kapda, makan. Even in Arab countries slogan of socialism brought Jamal Abdan Nasir and Mohammad Ghaddafi to the fore.
But now there is complete paradigm shift in politics. Socialism no longer has any charisma. It has been replaced by religious ideologies or religious fundamentalism throughout the world. Until late eighties Hindutva had no appeal to Indian masses or Islamic ideology to Pakistani people. Today it is politicized religious discourse which has strong appeal.
Also, slogans of basic needs have been replaced by ‘development’ discourse and development never means fulfilling basic needs like roti, kapda makan but development of the rich, increase in the wealth of the haves as today in liberalized economies in the globalised world. For Gujaratis trade and economic prosperity has been their lifeline. Even among Muslims of Gujarat Bohras, Khojas and Memons are rich traders and they will be as much attracted by the development discourse as upper caste Hindu Gujaratis. It is for this reason that Narendra Modi tried to win over Bohras and Khojas by his development discourse. He even had special section for Muslims (Bohras, Khojas etc.) in the economic exhibition arranged by him to showcase his development.
And today in the Hindutva laboratory that Gujarat is combination of economic development and Hindutva ideology is a sure guarantee for political win. And who knows this better than Modi? Modi thus combined development discourse with Hindutva mantra and won elections hands down.
The BJP maintains that Modi was using only development discourse for his campaigning and it was Sonia Gandhi by her remark of ‘maut ka saudagar’ that compelled Modi to use Hindutva card and then whole nature of campaign changed. This can hardly convince any reasonable mind. In fact it was planned that Hindutva discourse will be the last minute mantra. Development discourse was thought to be effective but perhaps there was lurking doubt and to dispel that doubt Hindutva discourse had to be use very tactically, throwing entire blame on the opposition after all.
What Mrs. Sonia Gandhi said was in no way contrary to facts. There was enough proof to maintain that Modi had used death and destruction to win 2002 election (which in all probability, he would have lost). In that election there was no reference to any development. 2002 campaign was heavily loaded with Hindutva discourse and he had earned enough bad publicity throughout the world. He could not afford to deploy pure Hindutva discourse in this election.
The Election Commission was also watching and he could not afford to be on the wrong side of law. He, therefore cleverly crafted his winning strategy – to use development and Hindutva at the last stage and hang the blame on Soniaben’s ‘maut ka saudagar’peg. If he was so sure of ‘development factor why did he not use it in 2002 election? On the contrary he is enjoying its after effects even in this election.
There is now another question: will the Gujarat model be as effective in other states? I have my doubts. Even after 2002 win the BJP was saying we will repeat Gujarat model in other states but it lost in several states. The fact is that BJP is in power in M.P. and Rajasthan by itself like in Gujarat and yet these two states have yet to go Gujarat way i.e. they have still not become ‘Hindutva laboratory’ like Gujarat.
It is an important question: why M.P. and Rajasthan, like Gujarat, could become Hindutva laboratory. Obviously conditions in these two states and caste and community equations are very different. Neither M.P. nor Rajasthan can ever become Hindutva laboratories like Gujarat. Nor development a la Gujarat can be effected in these two states. Obviously Gujarat model cannot be repeated even in these two BJP held states, much less in other states of India.
India is a highly diverse country – bewilderingly diverse, and what is possible in one state cannot happen in other states. Even CPM cannot repeat its model in states other than West Bengal and Kerala otherwise it would have captured other states long ago. Gujarat is more suited for Hindutva as West Bengal and Kerala are more suited for left ideology. In Gujarat similarly is more suited for rightwing Hindutva ideology for number of reasons.
Traders are generally very conservative and are known to be supporters of conservative religion and traditions. For the same reason Gujarat, unlike Maharashtra and other states, never saw any reform movement. The reform movement which brought into existence Swaminarayan sect, itself was very conservative religious reform movement. Today Swaminarayan movement is most popular and hegemonic in Gujarat. Swaminarayan temples are being built wherever these Patel Gujaratis live spending crores of rupees. Huge complexes have come into existence.
Thus Gujarat never experienced modern reform movement like Bengal or Kerala or Maharashtra or Karnataka. And hence the vice-like hold of conservative religion on Gujarat. Narendra Modi has shrewdly exploited this for his political rise. Also by organizing 2002 carnage of Muslims he built his charismatic image and now he is shrewdly combining it with his development discourse.
M.P. and Rajasthan also will face election soon. These states are very different both in economic and political sense. M.P. has already seen change of three chief ministers and the present one carries the stigma of being corrupt as he is facing serious corruption charges. He cannot claim charismatic position as Modi enjoys in Gujarat. Same is the story of Rajasthan. Both in M.P. and Rajasthan still feudal culture is quite strong and modern capitalistic development does not have attraction as Gujarat has.
In Rajasthan VHP tried its best to convert into Gujarat and often held out this threat but it never succeeded. Mrs. Vasundhara Raje Scindia could hardly employ Hindutva discourse as she comes from a ruling family of Gwalior and has very different experience. Modi, on the other hand, belongs to low Hindu caste of Gujarat and in order to rise to higher status, can employ reactionary religious ideology without any qualms and seek his own revenge for being humiliated all through history.
In U.P. there is no question of BJP using Gujarat model. It has, in Mayawati, met more than its match and she is going strong and has Dalit-Muslim and a section of upper caste votes also. Also, leaders like Rajnathsingh or Kalyan Singh hardly can claim charisma as Modi enjoys. And in present day U.P. it is not possible for BJP to organize Gujarat like genocide to gain any charisma.
Thus it will be seen that Gujarat is what it is on account of its own specificities and BJP’s dream of repeating Gujarat can hardly be fulfilled in other states.
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Centre for Study of Society and Secularism
Mumbai.
E-mail: csss@mtnl.net.in
I think as much as the intellectual elite and media may feel it wrong Modi’s success is reality and saddening. Added to that consoling it with BJP’s failure in other states or to find issues in Gujarati society itself is more sad. I think these consolations were itself a strength to the BJP in Gujarat. The swamin narayana movement was against Modi and in a way RSS as well.
Modi’s victory was on a development and clean image platform and it is this because of which Modi was not defeated. I don’t really understand the logic when people start blaming voters and electorate for their polarisation, taunting them, branding them as unsecular and then expecting them to vote for them.
I feel the major issue with both Hindus and Muslims is denial of true facts. Muslims want hindus to move towards secular parties but they themselves want to vote for parties who enforce their Muslim identity. Hindus on the other hand are slowly inching towards right winged party and expecting Muslims to be secular. Secularism is something which has to be realised by oneself. Teaching and taunting others to be secular will take noone anywhere. I don’t think communists are liked in Kerala or they are a good fit for politics. Bengal is a open secret about their victories and Kerala rotates between congress and communists every 5 years.
Muslims are themselves responsible for some of the things happening to them in India and around the world by denial of what started those incidents and their justifications . Hindus will be responsible later for destroying this nation once again. They want to be identified with their caste identities or their state identities more. Just ask a marathi in mumbai or a tamil in Chennai or a Gujarati or a Bengali or a Mallu.
Typical self serving analysis, the Muslim-Yadav vote remained solidly with Mulayum (whose vote share actually increased in the last election despite his loss). Perhaps Mr. Engineer cannot accept the fact that candidates win without the consent of the Muslim vote bank.
I am not surprised by the above hate filled drivel. Hindus cutting across all castes have no problem rallying behind Modi, but a supposedly “enlightened” and “moderate” “intellectual” is harping on Modi’s “low caste”.
It is time that the Muslim community leadership does some soul searching as to why it always has to blame its ills on BJP, Taslima Nasreen and finds its supporters people like Laloo Yadav. While it finds no role models in people like Kalam, Sania Mirza, Shah Rukh, Aamir or Irfan Pathan it seems to obsess more on Iraq, Palestine. This is because the Muslim intelligencia has abandoned its role such that parties like Congress engage in minority hoodlum appeasement and not genuine minority development.
In the past fifty years we need to understand why Muslims in India feel that they have not got their due share. Mind you, every community in India feels like that. If the most visible aspect of Muslim leadership is parties like MIM who focus on religion driven interests of the bigots of the Muslim community then the reaction of the average Hindu would be to feel threatened. Let’s be honest, if Muslims associate Mughals and Delhi Sultanate as “Muslim Rule”, it would be difficult to dissociate the evils of that period from the Muslim religion also.
It is a fact that when India could easily keep itself as a Hindu Majority state, it has chosen to be otherwise. It has ample evidence from its neighbors about what would be its fate if Muslims come close to wielding a sufficiently strong political force. The stories of how Hindu weakness caused India to come under Islamic rule even though Hindus were a majority are not too distant in history. This causes even a moderate middle class Hindu family who wants no association with a VHP to support Narendra Modi who focuses on nationalist pride. For Muslim community in India to claim its rightful share in India, it needs to find its own Indian identity and speak less of the Muslim Ummah.
Please note that I do not put much of the current “Muslim” political class to be in the same category as the average common Muslim. A cosmopolitan muslim middle class family is in no different state than an average middle class Hindu family. That’s because both draw strength from being professionals, from education and from hard work. Unfortunately the forces that drive the political class has often been different. When the average image of the muslim is not of skull caps, burqas and beards the impressions would also change. No hindu is stereotyped as wearing Dhoti and a tilak so why should even IM reinforce a parochial stereotype?
The analysis is below par compared to the standard fare on IM. Mr. Engineer – you mean well but are far too immersed in your experiences to think objectively.
I recommend you read Arun Jaitley’s interview in Express on how election strategies played out and BJP won.
While I agree that Modi’s extreme right-wing views definitely helped him get a polarized electorate to vote for him, I believe the increasing development and prosperity his government brought to at least the big cities in Gujarat also encouraged people to vote for him. It is wrong to not recognise this element in his re-election.
For once can Modi atone for his sins? Yes, he was someone at one point of time but I’m sure he wanted to, he could have sold Hindutva without development. Maybe he could not, maybe he did not want to. Fact is that Laloo and CPM survived in the constituencies with a joke in the name of governance but a lot of “secular” hogwash. When he says he is CM for all Gujratis, he includes all communities. If Congress got a second chance after sikh riots why not Modi?
For once can Modi atone for his sins?
Modi is not the sort to apologize, that is what irritates off his detractors in the media the most.
What does ‘maut ka saudagar’ mean?
Thanks
>> development factor why did he not use it in 2002 election?
because Modi was hardly CM for a year when Godhra and then elections happened… no?
>> belongs to low Hindu caste of Gujarat and in order to rise to higher status, can employ reactionary religious ideology without any qualms and seek his own revenge for being humiliated all through history.
yeah, right. Caste, Religion, Vote bank, appeasement, revenge, sultanate … can Indian Muslisms come out of this mindset please?
Well Modi win because gujrati population is communaly polarise. If modi would have lost it would have been victory of secularism.
what kind of reasoning is this ?
Mr Engineer is framing people according to his convinient.
Kudos to all Mr. Modi`s supporters in this forum. In spite of all the blah-blahs regarding poll arithmetics, caste equations and the share of Muslim votes in
electoral success, the fact is that India is a Hindu country. Muslims (and other minorities) can, at best, play a very marginal role. Hence it is up to the Hindus to decide how they want to run the country. To elect, Mr Modi once and let him run Gujrat now or evewn the country in future, is surely a Hindu prerogative.
I don’t mean to be controversial here and don’t want to kick off another debate, but I will say this. If Modi comes to rule this country that my forefathers fought for, I will only have 1 option: Leave the country.
He CANNOT be allowed to come to power! If he does, India will surely have a fate like Germany’s post the 2nd world war! History says that the world eventually gangs up against facist, totalitarian regimes. They lie in wait till the time is ripe & then they gang up & strike. The collective might of the world is too much for any country to match. If we want to become & remain a superpower, we will HAVE to tread the secular path. Infighting & marking yourself out as deliberately different will only have counter-productive effects!
Dear Opinionated once you decide upon the country you would be emigrating to please let me know or preferably take me along. Modi becoming the prime minister is a foregone conclusion. Muslims can not prevent it. It is upto the Hindus to decide the course they want to take the country.
Anyway my first sentence, as you understand, was a joke, the cruel fact is that no country would take the Muslim Indians. The Muslims have to make “adjustments” here like passengers without reservation do in reserved compartments of the trains.
sameen…
Don’t be so disheartened. All isn’t lost yet. Modi may not make it. Muslims don’t need to prevent it, they can’t anyway. Even if they vote in unision (which is unlikely), they only comprise 11% of the vote I think? The gladdening thing is that a large chunk of Hindu Indians
still vote for the Congress, JD, BSP, SP, CPI etc. The idea is to get everyone (through websites like these, through forums, through discussion, we’re not doing enough yet!) to back the right parties. If that is achieved, the BJP will disappear like the erstwhile Muslim League. And we will have to thank our Hindu Indian bretheren for it!
If not, the world is our oyster. It’s important to get out of this minority mindset.
In the meantime:
Came across a treasure trove of views & analysis on Gujarat. All Indians will be interested I think:
http://www.countercurrents.org/nandy140108.htm (this is just one of them)
the whole list is here:
http://www.countercurrents.org/gujarat.htm